Abstract：Objective To establish a predictive model for risk factors causing urogenital sepsis after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL).Methods The clinical data of 220 patients with kidney stones, upper ureteral stones who underwent PCNL in our department from August 2018 to August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed and divided into urogenic sepsis group (21 cases) and nonurogenic sepsis group (199 cases) based on whether they progressed to sepsis after surgery, and their influencing factors such as age, gender, body mass index (BMI), history of diabetes, urinary routine and urine culture were analyzed univariately and multifactorially, respectively. Corresponding line graph prediction models were established.Results The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for postoperative progression to sepsis were history of diabetes mellitus （OR=7.64，P=0.002）, urine culture （OR=2.97，P=0.021）, CT value of hydronephrosis （OR=4.52，P=0.013）, number of stones （OR=4.52，P=0.032）, and deerstalkershaped stones（OR=3.70，P=0.036）. The AUC of the prediction model was 0.919, as suggested by the HosmerLemeshow test, revealing a prediction model with good discrimination and calibration (χ2=4.069，P=0.851).Conclusions History of diabetes mellitus, midstream urine culture, CT value of hydronephrosis, number of stones, and antlershaped stones are independent risk factors for urogenital sepsis after PCNL.
